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The End of the Dollar? 💵📉
Countries are moving away from the dollar at a worrying pace, Latest Belajawanku study on Malaysians' monthly spending, Bitcoin remains bullish
This Week’s Top Headlines
i) Bitcoin remains bullish and is currently hovering above $28,000. A recent court filing showed that the US government sold $216 million worth of seized Bitcoin from Silk Road back in 2012.
ii) The de-dollarization is picking up speed. Multiple countries, including Russia, China, and India, have agreed to abandon the US dollar and instead trade in their respective currencies. Is it possible for the world to transition into a new reserve currency?
iii) The latest Belanjawanku study has revealed that Malaysians need at least RM1,930 per month to survive, assuming they are single and do not own a car. We conducted a poll on Instagram recently, asking you if this amount is sufficient. Many of you agreed that it is simply not enough to make ends meet.
Scroll down to read the details.
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Bulls continue to defend Bitcoin while Bears take a break
It has been another week of sunshine for Bitcoin, as the world’s largest cryptocurrency holds steady above $28,000.
In my previous issue, I cautioned readers about the inevitable retracement looming due to the sheer amount of greed in the market. Bitcoin did see a slight correction earlier this week, skidding to a low of $26,700 on Tuesday before rebounding surprisingly quickly to $28,000.
Observing the hourly chart, the current support and resistance are at $27,000 and $29,000, respectively. I believe that Bitcoin should continue to trade within this range in the upcoming week until the next release of the US inflation data on April 12.
The US government dumped $216 million worth of Bitcoin this month
It’s no doubt that the crypto market is in bullish territory right now, with many making money from the pump.
Surprisingly, the US government has also joined the party, selling over 9,800 Bitcoins on March 14 at an average price of $21,900, resulting in a transaction worth $216 million.
These Bitcoins were a part of the 50,000 BTC that was seized from the arrest of James Zhong, who had pleaded guilty of manipulating the transaction system on the darknet Silk Road back in 2012, as reported by CoinDesk.
The government is now left with 41,490 Bitcoins after the sale, worth $1.18 billion. According to a court filing, they plan to liquidate the remaining balance in four separate transactions over the course of this year.
The de-dollarization is underway, and it is faster than ever.
America may be losing its superpower and unrivaled control over the world as multiple countries have announced plans to reduce their reliance on the dollar.
In March alone:
i) Saudi Arabia has entered a trade alliance with China, Russia, India, Pakistan and four other Asian nations to move further away from the dollar.
ii) China and France have completed the first LNG gas trade using Chinese yuan, ending the use of the dollar on energy trades.
iii) China, Brazil, India, and several other countries have agreed to ditch the dollar and settle trades using their own currency.
iv) Kenya has signed a deal with Saudi Arabia and UAE to acquire oil with their own currency instead of using dollars. The president of Kenya urges citizens to get rid of US dollars.
v) Russia continues to add more yuan into its currency reserves. Yuan-ruble trade has increased eighty-fold since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022.
These developments suggest that the dominance of the US dollar is losing steam fast.
The question remains: will the dollar and the US suffer a significant blow soon?
The answer: Yes.
The dollar’s reign will come to an end, but it will take years or even decades.
As of September, the greenback made up over 60% of the world’s central bank reserves. Although it has been steadily declining, it still accounts for almost two thirds of the funds stored within central banks.
Meanwhile the Chinese yuan, having tripled since 2016, is only at 3%.
According to the latest forex statistics by Compare Forex Brokers, over $7,500,000,000,000 currencies are traded everyday. That’s trillion, with a “t”.
The US dollar makes up 88% of all Forex trading pairs. The Chinese yuan accounts for only 7%, behind the Japanese yen, at 17%.
It is important to note that despite the recent moves by several countries to reduce their reliance on the US dollar, the greenback is still widely used and accepted worldwide. China, on the other hand, has a lot of catching up to do before it can match the global influence of the dollar.
I also wrote a thread on Twitter recently about the epic rise and inevitable fall of the US dollar, which is quite lengthy but informative. I’ll be glad if you would give it a read and share your thoughts:
The dollar is America’s superpower.
It gives the US unrivaled economic and political control over the world due to its status as the world’s reserve currency.
But the dollar’s reign is soon coming to an end.
This is the story of its epic rise and inevitable downfall. 🧵
— The Futurizts (@TheFuturizts)
12:16 PM • Mar 31, 2023
RM1,930 per month required to survive in Malaysia, based on latest Belanjawanku study
Belanjawanku is an expenditure guide for Malaysians on how much they require a month to live under an acceptable standard.
It is based on the actual spending patterns of citizens and aims to improve financial literacy by allowing Malaysians to make better financial decisions.
According to the study, a single person living in the Klang Valley requires a minimum of RM1,930 per month to survive. The expenses jump by 35%, to RM2,600, if you own a car.
Meanwhile, married couples without children require RM4,630, or RM2,315 per person. This category is RM285 less compared to singles owning a car, assuming couples share responsibilities.
As for married couples and single parents with children, the main contributors to the increase in expenses are childcare and food. For the elderly, it’s food.
In comparison to other cities, Klang Valley is the most expensive to live in. Georgetown takes the second place, with a minimum of RM1,830 required per month.
Alor Setar is the most affordable, requiring only RM1,530 per month if you're single.
After posting the details of this study on Twitter and Instagram, I conducted a short poll asking you if RM1,930 per month is enough to survive. Over 1,100 have responded.
Here are the results:
Unsurprisingly, the majority of you agree that RM1,930 is certainly not enough to live.
I stand with you on this one. To survive (and thrive) with this salary, you would either have to be a master budgeter or live rent-free.
It's not surprising that most people would choose the highest salary when asked about their preferred income. However, it's important to acknowledge that employers typically want their employees to work the most while paying them the least amount possible. On the other hand, employees want to work the least while receiving the highest possible compensation.
In my opinion, the key here is to strike a balance between these two opposing perspectives. It's important to be able to tell yourself that while your salary may not be your ideal figure, it's still decent and meets your needs.
Housing and food are no doubt the biggest expenses in almost everyone’s budget.
Just look at the ratio of millennials who own a property compared to their parents when they were younger, and you’ll understand.
Don’t blame yourself on this one. It stems from a much bigger issue - wage growth and inflation.
These issues have made it difficult for young people to save enough money to afford a down payment on a home or to keep up with the rising cost of food. The lack of affordable housing has also pushed many young people into the rental market, which can be incredibly costly in some areas.
Yes, it’s crucial to take responsibility for our finances, but it's equally essential to recognize the external factors that affect our financial situation.
That’s all for this week’s newsletter!
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This newsletter is based on my own analysis and research. Do not take any of it as financial advice.
*This newsletter was written at 11.30 AM on 2nd April 2023 and completed at 3.30 PM the same day. To get early access to our newsletter, be our patron for as little as $1/month!
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