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- In the End, the Stock Market ALWAYS Wins.
In the End, the Stock Market ALWAYS Wins.
After shedding 14% due to Trump's tariffs, the S&P recovered and breached a new all time high.
On April 2, Donald Trump shocked the world by announcing sweeping tariffs on nearly every country.
He claimed that foreign nations have “looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered” America for too long. According to him, these steep tariffs would “make America wealthy again” by bringing back industrialization.
The main argument? The U.S. has a large trade deficit with other nations, and he wanted to narrow the gap.

Malaysia was slapped with a 24% reciprocal tariff by the White House. While that sounds high, it’s actually lower than what a few of our neighbors received — Vietnam (46%), Cambodia (49%), Thailand (36%).

Markets didn’t take it well. The S&P 500 dropped by 14.11% in the week following the announcement. Panic spread, with many predicting a US recession that could drag down the rest of the world.

The S&P plunged 14.11% in the wake of Trump’s announced tariffs

Many news sources citing economists and analysts predict a recession for the US
But just 8 days later, Trump granted a 90-day pause for most countries (except China), saying he was open to negotiating.
Markets bounced back slightly.
Then, about two weeks later, Trump also granted a 90-day pause for China, effectively reversing most of the major tariffs he had just announced. What followed was a strong rally, and the S&P fully recovered its earlier losses.

The S&P breached a new all time high this week.
Now, the 90-day freeze is set to expire on July 9, and uncertainty is back.
The Trump administration is trying to revamp global trade, but it’s unclear where things are heading.
Economists warn that if the original April 2 tariffs return in full, it could bring back inflation, hurt smaller businesses, and spark another market crash.
In the meantime, Trump has made new trade deals with countries like China, the UK, and Vietnam. But the details of other agreements are still unclear.
Trump said on Friday that the US would start informing countries what tariffs they’ll face. He also confirmed he doesn’t plan to extend the July 9 deadline.

So why is the market at an all-time high?
More tariffs could definitely spark another wave of volatility, but here’s the thing: investors are getting used to the drama.
This is “tariff fatigue”.
Most don’t believe Trump will follow through on his threats. They expect more delays, more negotiation, more kicking the can down the road.
Basically, markets think Trump is bluffing.
“I should’ve gone all in on April 2.”
Sure. But how would you have known he’d reverse course and grant a 90-day pause? The man says and tweets whatever pops into his head.
In fact, on April 10, he doubled down on the China tariffs, claiming they showed a “lack of respect.”

Things could have gone very differently if he hadn’t paused the tariffs. The market might have kept falling, possibly to pre-COVID levels.
It’s all guesswork. No one can predict markets with 100% certainty.
But if there’s one thing history tells us — it’s this:
Markets (especially the US) almost always recover from financial shocks, no matter how bad.
In the end, the stock market always wins.

Regardless of the crises, the US market has recovered from all of the shocks.
So, how do you deal with the uncertainty?
By dollar cost averaging.
This is what I’ve been doing since the tariffs were first announced.

Since April, I spread my US investments across 6-12 months, DCA-ing monthly
Instead of stock picking, I invest in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track the S&P 500, which represents the performance of the top 500 U.S. companies.
My thinking is this: Why have one company working for you when you can have 100 or even 500 of the most productive companies working to generate your returns?
There are many ETFs that track the S&P, and you can buy/sell them just like how you acquire a regular stock during trading hours.
Some popular ones include:
VOO (Vanguard S&P 500): Tracks the S&P 500, giving exposure to 500 of the largest US companies—ideal for broad, stable growth.
VTI (Total U.S. Market): Covers the entire US stock market, including large, mid, and small-cap companies, offering diversification across all sectors.
QQQ (Top 100 tech): Tracks the Nasdaq-100, focused on the 100 largest non-financial companies. Mostly tech-heavy, offering strong growth but higher volatility.
VGT (Tech-focused): Targets US tech companies, including software, hardware, and IT services. Ideal for investors bullish on long-term tech innovation.
I’ve been holding QQQ and VGT for over a year, and it’s been one of my best financial decisions so far.

QQQ (+32.98% profit) and VGT (+20.18%)
But there are risks.
A weakening dollar could eat into your returns, so it doesn’t make sense to go all-in on the US market.
We don’t know if the strong uptrend will continue, especially as the world gradually shifts away from the dollar.

Since January, the dollar has declined by 5.47%
What platforms can I use to invest in ETFs?
You can use regulated brokers like M+ Global, MooMoo, Rakuten, and Webull.
All of them offer access to ETFs and other global assets. Their fees are pretty similar (except for M+ Global), so if you already have one, there’s not much reason to switch, unless you’re eyeing their welcome rewards.

I personally use Rakuten and prefer sticking to one platform. Managing multiple apps is too much of a hassle to me.
If you’re new and haven’t signed up yet, feel free to use my referral code: https://www.rakutentrade.my/device/accountopening?referralcode=43fabDSZMG&mode=web
^ You’ll get RM10 in Rakuten Points to offset your brokerage fees.
That’s all for this week’s newsletter!
DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice. The opinions of this newsletter are solely that of the publisher.
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