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- Middle East Conflict Escalates, Ringgit and Markets Retrace, China Stocks Surge.
Middle East Conflict Escalates, Ringgit and Markets Retrace, China Stocks Surge.
The war between Iran and Israel is quickly heating up.
Iran launched almost 200 missiles into Israel early Wednesday.
In a dramatic escalation of violence and terror in the Middle East, Iran has launched a large-scale attack against Israel, firing more than 180 missiles into Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
The ballistics lit up the night sky as sirens sounded, and 10 million people were rushed into bomb shelters.
This was not the first attack that Iran has launched against Israel this year. In April, it launched about 300 missiles and drones.
Though most of the missiles were successfully intercepted with help from the US, the Israeli military warned Iran of “dangerous escalation” and said that this attack will have consequences.
The missiles did minimal damage to property, but killed a Palestinian man in West Bank.
The FBMKLCI tanked and ringgit retraced.
Global markets were rocked following the attack, with the FBMKLCI declining by 1.38%, led by major stocks such as Maybank (RM10.50), Public Bank (RM4.55), and CIMB (RM7.94).
From last Friday’s close of 1,670 points, the benchmark index is now down 2.20%.
The FBMKLCI opened lower on Wednesday due to the Middle East conflict
Investors were already taking profits off the table earlier this week, and the unfortunate escalation in Israel gave them more reason to pivot to safe-haven assets.
The dollar and gold rose, with the USDMYR pair gaining to RM4.2150 from its 42-month low of RM4.0976 on Friday.
For a currency pair to lose 12.29% in 3 months and then gain 3.31% in four days shows just how volatile markets can be, and how quickly the tides can shift against your favor.
To fall 12% in 3 months and rally 3.3% in four days is just insane.
Gold hit (another) all-time high.
The precious metal soared to $2,653/ounce on Friday, up almost 30% since the start of the year.
With the conflict in the Middle East not resolving any sooner and the Federal Reserve expected to continue reducing interest rates, experts believe that it is not impossible for gold to hit $3,000/ounce by the end of year.
In ringgit terms, gold has gained 17.6% since January.
Markets can be volatile. That’s why you must have a solid strategy when investing.
Whether you’re saving for retirement, education, downpayment for a new car, wedding, etc, each of these goals have a different risk appetite because they have different time frames.
For instance, someone who’s planning to save up for a downpayment for a house cannot afford to invest as aggressively as someone who is investing for retirement.
Therefore, each goal needs a separate portfolio with their respective allocations. If you’ve been combining your investments into one giant portfolio, you may run into complications when the market moves violently, as the purpose of investing is unclear.
This is one of the things that was repeatedly mentioned by financial experts Hann and Sani during our discussion last Sunday.
What does my portfolio look like?
My portfolio is split between Malaysia, the US, Singapore, China, Taiwan, and commodities like gold.
The essential factor for a portfolio to perform well is diversification, where the performance of an asset will “cancel out” or outperform the asset that has underperformed.
My portfolio is largely in Malaysia and the US.
For my investments in Malaysia, it is split 50/50 between bank stocks (Maybank & Public Bank) and tech stocks like INARI and TIMECOM.
I don’t stock pick in the US, so I just buy ETFs that track the market indices, such as QQQ and VTI.
As for the remaining overseas investments, I invest in aggressive funds that have exposure in China, Taiwan, and Singapore. These funds can be found on TNG GOINVEST or Versa:
GOINVEST’s Asia Pacific Fund invests in Chinese tech stocks, Taiwan, and more.
Versa SGD mainly invests in Singapore-denominated assets, such as banks.
I should put a disclaimer and say that these percentages and allocations are not fixed. You should determine them for yourself, as everyone’s risk profile and time horizon are different.
Chinese Market Surged as Positive Sentiment Returns
The Hang Seng Index has surged for 21 days in a row to a 20-month high.
The index gained 28.97%, as optimism that Beijing's stimulus package could revive the world's second-largest economy and fix its crumbling property market.
Among the top gainers were property and tech stocks.
The Hang Seng Property Index soared 47%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index jumped 8.53%.
The rally has turned the Chinese market and brought it into bullish territory.
Since 2018, Hong Kong stocks have been largely on a downtrend due to the government’s efforts to burst the property bubble.
President Xi enacted the “Three Red Lines” policy, which made it difficult for developers to acquire new loans from the government. The administration also placed restrictions on home purchases for citizens.
But now, on top of the stimulus package, other support measures were enacted to lift restrictions on property ownership and transactions.
Guangzhou’s city government lifted all restrictions on home purchases on Monday.
Shanghai’s reduction of the required tax-paying period took effect on Tuesday.
Shenzhen has relaxed purchasing restrictions, allowing buyers to purchase one additional apartment in select districts.
Here are the 10 largest stocks in China
Tencent has a market cap of $557.59 billion, roughly 18 times larger than Maybank ($30.4 billion), but 6 times smaller than Apple ($3.44 trillion).
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That’s all for this week’s newsletter!
Disclaimer: The information contained in this newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice.
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