Dollar sinks, ringgit rises. But will MYR end at RM4.30 this year?

US inflation has moderated below expectations this week as foreign investors continue to acquire Malaysian equities.

*This newsletter has been released 3 days early for patrons.

This Week at a Glance…

i) Ringgit rises against the greenback as US inflation slows.

October’s US CPI moderated to 3.2% versus expectations of 3.3%. Technical analysts foresee the ringgit gaining to 4.6350 next week.

ii) Foreign investors maintained their net buying status on Bursa Malaysia.

The net buying amounted to RM676.7 million, nearly four times higher compared to the week prior.

iii) Who are Maybank’s top shareholders?

ASB and EPF collectively hold 43.75% of the most valuable company in Malaysia, with the former owning 3.82 billion shares of Maybank.

Scroll down to read the details.

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GXBank - The New Cash App in Town

GX Bank is currently open for public beta to 20,000 selected Malaysians.

The banking app, which is a joint venture in Singapore between Grab and SingTel, allows users to earn 3.0% pa returns.

The interest is paid and compounded daily (similar to TnG GO+), and they are offering an RM20 reward for the first deposit of RM100 to encourage users to sign up.

The registration process can be done entirely online. A minimum deposit of RM10 is required from a bank account under your name.

Grab’s GXBank allows you to earn 3.0% pa daily returns.

But how does it compare to other cash apps?

At 3.0% pa, GXBank’s earning rate is quite low to be honest. TnG GO+ (3.45% pa) and Rize (5% pa) are offering much higher returns.

That said, GXBank and Rize are both banking apps, so your funds are flexible and protected by PIDM, unlike TnG GO+.

However, GXBank currently has no option to spend via DuitNow QR and there’s no debit card. The only way to send funds is via DuitNow transfer.

I’m currently in the midst of registering for this app. Will do a full review of it soon.

Dollar weakens as US inflation slows

The dollar fell against six major currencies this week, as the latest US CPI data showed inflation moderating further, increasing the odds that the Fed is done with rate hikes.

The overall CPI cooled to 3.2% versus the consensus forecast of 3.3%, while core inflation showed a similar trend.

Both the overall and core inflation fell more than expected this week.

The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against six peers, slid 1.55% on Tuesday, its biggest single-day decline since November 2022.

Consequently, the USDMYR pair declined by 0.61%, with the ringgit gaining to RM4.6568 on Tuesday before retracing to RM4.6815 on Friday’s close.

Thanks to the encouraging CPI data, probabilities from CMEGroup now indicate a 99.7% favor towards the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady during its meeting in December.

Before the inflation data was released, the odds were at 86:14.

The Fed is (most guaranteed) to pause rate hikes in December.

MIDF steadfast on Ringgit ending the year at RM4.30

The research firm, noting the recent US inflation data and slowing jobs report for October, has stayed on its forecast of the local note rising to RM4.30-RM4.40 by year-end.

Should this be realized, that would translate to a 9.26% gain in less than 2 months.

It may seem a little far-fetched, but this movement has occurred previously.

In November last year, the ringgit gained over 11% in less than a quarter.

Not saying that MIDF’s prediction is likely to happen, but I’m hoping for the best.

Foreign investors maintain buying interest in Bursa Malaysia

For the 2nd consecutive week, foreign funds have remained as net buyers, with a total of RM676.7 million for the week ending 10 Nov, nearly four times the amount purchased the week prior.

From MIDF’s fund flow report, every day of the week was net buying from foreigners.

The top three sectors that recorded the highest foreign inflows were Financial Services (RM194.4m), Utilities (RM123.1m), and Healthcare (RM111.3m).

On a year to date basis, foreigners are still net sellers at -RM3.29 billion, while local institutions have been keeping the market afloat, acquiring RM4.24 billion within the same timeframe.

The FBMKLCI has came a long way in the last few months. Previously, the Malaysian market was the second worst performer when compared to other Asian indices.

The top three stocks that have seen notable buying from foreigners this week were Maybank (RM92.3m), CIMB Bank (RM56.7m) and MISC (RM48.3m).

Speaking of Maybank, who are its top shareholders?

With the market valuation of RM110 billion, Maybank is the largest and most valuable company in Malaysia.

As of June 2023, Amanah Saham Bumiputera (ASB) is the most significant shareholder of the company, holding a whopping 3.82 billion shares, or a 31.67% stake.

EPF comes in at the 2nd place with 1.456 billion shares or a 12.08% stake.

Majority of the spots in the top 10 list are occupied by ASNB unit trusts – ASM 2, ASM, ASM 3, and ASB 2.

On the topic of ASB, its single largest equity holding is in Maybank.

The next largest holding is Sime Darby Plantation Berhad.

ASB’s fund size totaled RM186.24 billion as of 2022, and 79.26% of it is invested in equities.

More about ASB's holdings here.

That’s all for this week’s newsletter!

DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice.

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